Standard Chartered expects Ethena’s USDe stablecoin to reach $40 billion in supply by the end of 2028, while its ENA token could reach $2, according to a new research report. The bank has started coverage of ENA with a year-end 2028 price target of $2, compared with about $0.28 when the report was published.
Standard Chartered also expects USDe to grow slightly faster than the overall stablecoin market. The bank’s forecast is based partly on Ethena expanding its sources of yield beyond crypto basis trading and using revenue to support ENA buybacks.
Standard Chartered has initiated research coverage of Ethena.
They forecast potential USDe growth of ~8x in the next 2 years as the convergence of DeFi and TradFi accelerates.
Unclear why they are so bearish, but worth a read regardless: pic.twitter.com/JlzXqrqc07
— Ethena (@ethena) September 30, 2026
In its report, Standard Chartered said the outlook for Ethena has changed as returns from its traditional crypto basis trade have declined. The strategy involves holding spot crypto assets while taking short positions in perpetual futures to earn from differences between the two markets.
With those returns becoming less attractive, Ethena has been expanding into other areas, including DeFi, institutional lending, real-world assets and basis trades linked to equities and commodities.
According to Standard Chartered, these newer sources currently generate a blended yield of around 5.2%. The bank believes this could give USDe more room to grow as Ethena diversifies how it generates returns from the assets supporting the stablecoin.
The bank also expects the broader tokenized asset market to expand sharply. Standard Chartered estimates that the market could grow from around $350 billion currently to $4 trillion by the end of 2028. A larger tokenized asset market could provide Ethena with more opportunities to generate yield from assets beyond traditional cryptocurrencies.
A major part of Standard Chartered’s ENA valuation argument is the connection between USDe’s growth and token buybacks. Ethena governance approved a fee switch in early September that directs 95% of net revenue from its business lines toward ENA buybacks once USDe reaches specified supply milestones.
Ethena estimates that when USDe supply reaches $25 billion, the mechanism could generate about $375 million in annual ENA buybacks. That estimate assumes a 6% gross protocol yield and a 25% net revenue take rate.
Standard Chartered expects USDe to eventually reach $40 billion. If ENA’s price remained unchanged at that point, the bank estimates annual buybacks could equal roughly 23% of ENA’s circulating market capitalization.
The bank said such a buyback rate would probably not remain sustainable. Its expectation is that a higher ENA price would reduce the size of buybacks relative to the token’s market value. Standard Chartered compared the situation with Uniswap, where the annualized buyback rate has settled at around 3% to 4% as the UNI token price increased.
Standard Chartered’s forecasts also imply that ENA could outperform Bitcoin and Ether through 2028. The bank expects Bitcoin to reach $300,000 and Ether to reach $18,000 by the end of that year. These figures are the bank’s forecasts rather than guaranteed future prices.
ENA was trading at around $0.27 on Wednesday, according to the data cited in the report, after gaining about 28% over the previous week and 77% over the previous month. Its market capitalization was around $2.65 billion.
The outlook for Ethena will depend on several factors, including the growth of USDe, the returns generated from its expanding range of assets, the development of tokenized markets and the actual revenue available for ENA buybacks. Standard Chartered’s $2 target therefore rests on USDe achieving significant growth and Ethena successfully expanding beyond its original crypto trading strategy.
Stay informed with the latest trends in Web3, blockchain innovation, and cybersecurity updates at 3verseTV
You need to login in order to Like
Leave a comment