Predictions made on the blockchain-based Polymarket show Hollywood actor Michael B. Jordan as the front-runner to win the Best Actor award at the 2026 Oscars.
Prediction markets allow betting on real events, including elections, sporting events, award shows or similar incidents. These marketplaces often display what people think is most likely to happen.
Data from Polymarket show that currently Jordan has a 47% probability of winning the Best Actor trophy, according to Polymarket data. With roughly 45% probability, actor Timothée Chalamet is not far behind. Other nominees, such as Wagner Moura (4%), Leonardo DiCaprio (5%) and Ethan Hawke (1%), are far behind.
Jordan’s chances increased with his recent Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award victory for Best Actor. This victory may also improve his prospects of winning the Oscar, say many experts.
Jordan was nominated for an Oscar for his performance as twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the movie “Sinners”. Chalamet, meanwhile, received a nomination for his role in the drama “Marty Supreme”.
The Polymarket prediction market for the Best Actor category has already reached a volume of almost $5.6 million, and the 2026 Academy Awards ceremony is set for March 15.
In recent years, prediction markets have grown in popularity, particularly following significant political events.
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