The odds of the U.S. Clarity Act passing this year have dropped sharply after President Donald Trump revealed he earned about $1.4 billion from crypto ventures. This disclosure has raised new concerns about ethics and potential conflicts of interest. Prediction markets now show the bill faces tough odds in Congress, with traders lowering their expectations for its passage.
The decline is due to political uncertainty, Senate delays, and more calls from Democrats for stronger safeguards against conflicts of interest among public officials. As a result, there is growing doubt that the long-awaited crypto market structure bill will reach President Trump’s desk this year.
According to Polymarket statistics, the likelihood that the Clarity Act would become law in 2026 fell to 39% on July 1, the lowest level to date. In stark contrast to early confidence, the platform now indicates that the law is unlikely to succeed this year.
Because it attempts to establish a clear legal framework for digital assets and define the duties of regulators, the Clarity Act is seen as a crucial component of U.S. crypto law. This type of legislation, according to many in the cryptocurrency sector, is necessary to encourage investment and innovation.
But the bill faces several challenges. The U.S. Senate has a packed schedule, so there is little time for debate and voting. Galaxy Digital has also lowered its estimate of the bill’s chances to 50%, pointing to Senate delays and lawmakers’ busy calendars.
Prediction platform Kalshi is even more cautious. It gives the bill just a 0.1% chance of passing in July and 13% in August. In the last 24 hours, Polymarket forecasts have swung between 36% and 44%, showing traders are increasingly uncertain.
Trump’s financial disclosure has made the political situation more complex. Critics say a president with large crypto earnings should not help approve laws that could affect the industry. Before supporting the plan, Democratic senators demand more stringent ethics regulations, and several conventional banking organizations have expressed reservations about the suggested structure.
Although the Clarity Act is currently in effect, its future is less assured. The crypto business may have to wait longer for the precise regulations it desires if legislators are unable to settle their disagreements and swiftly get the measure thru the Senate.
BREAKING: The “Clarity Act” is no longer projected to be signed into law this year. pic.twitter.com/pt7S5sYqjc
— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) June 30, 2026
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