The odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year have dropped as political talks in Washington get more complicated. Polymarket now predicts much lower chances of the crypto market structure bill passing in 2026, especially after White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt started military leave and Senator Elizabeth Warren pushed again for stricter ethics rules. With a tight schedule before the Senate’s August break and more disagreements over conflict-of-interest rules, the bill’s future is even less certain.
America is primed for digital asset leadership.
The GENIUS Act has already helped unlock investment and innovation in the stablecoin sector. Now, we have an opportunity to strengthen America’s leadership in digital assets, but only if we pass the CLARITY Act.
The time is now,… pic.twitter.com/mTwGL2Ee52
— Senator Bill Hagerty (@SenatorHagerty) July 13, 2026
Patrick Witt, a lead negotiator on crypto legislation for the Trump administration, has temporarily left to attend Army National Guard JAG training and is expected back later this month. In the meantime, deputy adviser Harry Jung will handle negotiations.
The administration says talks will continue, but Witt’s absence comes at a key moment as Senate Republicans try to bring the CLARITY Act to a vote before the August recess.
Senator Elizabeth Warren is increasing pressure by urging Senate leaders to add strict ethics rules to the bill. In a letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, she argued the bill should ban the President, Vice President, members of Congress, senior officials, and their families from making money from crypto businesses while working on digital asset policy.
Warren’s demand comes after disclosures showed President Donald Trump earned significant income from crypto, which she says could create conflicts of interest. She warned that passing the bill without stronger safeguards might hurt public trust.
The White House says any ethics rules should apply to all government officials, not just specific offices or people.
Besides ethics rules, lawmakers are still working out issues about stablecoin yields and developer protections, which have also slowed progress.
With little time left before the Senate recess, both supporters and critics agree that the next few weeks will decide if the CLARITY Act can get enough bipartisan support to advance. The bill is still in play, but recent events have made its path to becoming law much harder.
🚨BREAKING: Odds of CLARITY Act Signed Into Law in 2026 Fall to Lowest-Ever Today
🔸Top White House Crypto Adviser Patrick Witt to take military leave while Senate Republicans push for a floor vote before August 7 recess.
Witt’s deputy Harry Jung steps in and has been in the… pic.twitter.com/Z5exqVwZ2m
— Rednirav (@CryptoRednirav) July 14, 2026
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