Six Polymarket traders earned roughly $1 million after accurately betting that the United States would strike Iran before the end of February, triggering insider trading suspicions.
The six wallets were all created in February and placed nearly all of their activity on contracts predicting the timing of a potential US attack, Bloomberg reported, citing data shared by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA.
The timing drew attention from onchain investigators, who said the pattern resembles behavior previously linked to suspected insider activity on prediction markets.
During the recent escalation, more than $529 million flowed into strike-related contracts on Polymarket. The specific Feb. 28 contract alone attracted roughly $90 million in trading volume, making it the most popular strike date among traders.
The terms of the Khamenei contract do not exclude his death as a qualifying event, an omission that has drawn criticism from those who argue it effectively places a financial incentive on assassination.
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