- Polymarket has launched 5-minute binary prediction markets for Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL) and XRP on its U.S. regulated CFTC platform QCX LLC on October 28. These are settled on a one dollar prize per correct prediction in a 60 second average price from CF Benchmarks.
- The markets were revised in August 2026 after a study by an academic institution found $8.2m profits gained from manipulation of the 5-minute Bitcoin markets launched in February 2026. 93% of losses were incurred by retail traders.
- Shortly after launch the platform switched to only allowing cancelling of 5-minute markets after reports users had lost funds from their wallets as a result of a breach with a third party provider. The platform identified and resolved the issue, passed it onto law enforcement and committed to reimbursing all users. MetaMask has confirmed that users using the prediction market will not be impacted.
- The CFTC is also investigating whether Polymarket breached its 2022 settlement agreement to prevent U.S. users accessing its offshore platform. The CFTC is also looking at consumer protections for customers on the U.S. platform.
5-minute Contracts Go Live In The US
Polymarket launched five-minute up-or-down crypto prediction contracts on its US-regulated platform, QCX LLC, on October 28, 2026. The contracts are available for Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and XRP. Traders predict whether an asset’s price will finish above or below its level at the start of a five-minute window.
📣 FYI: MetaMask prediction market users are unaffected by this issue.
While MetaMask has implemented Polymarket prediction markets, we do not use Polymarket’s front end nor SDKs.
All Polymarket trading, however, is halted while they look to resolve any ongoing concern.
— MetaMask 🦊 (@MetaMask) October 29, 2026
A correct prediction pays a fixed $1 per share; an incorrect one pays nothing. The US platform operates under CFTC oversight, distinguishing it from Polymarket’s broader international platform.
How The Contracts Work
Settlement is handled by CF Benchmarks’ real-time dollar indexes, averaging 60 price observations taken during the final 60 seconds of the contract window. Globally, Polymarket uses Chainlink’s 60-second time-weighted average price for settlement.
🚨UPDATE: Crypto price predictions are getting shorter timeframes on @Polymarket US.
The platform now offers five-minute up-or-down markets for $BTC, $ETH, $SOL and $XRP, with @chainlink price data determining the outcomes.
With five-minute markets, traders can take views on short-term crypto price movements rather than longer-term direction. The format brings faster-paced prediction markets to four major digital assets.
— Cryptic (@Cryptic_Web3) October 28, 2026
The rules were updated in August 2026 following an academic study published in June that identified $8.2 million in estimated profits from manipulation of five-minute Bitcoin contracts that launched in February 2026, with 93% of losses attributed to retail traders. Analysts said they have seen no evidence of the new US contracts affecting underlying spot prices.
Platform Halts After Wallet Drain Reports
Shortly after the new contracts launched, Polymarket moved its platform to cancel-only mode after reports of user wallets being drained. The exchange said one of its third-party providers was compromised, identified and fixed the issue, referred the matter to law enforcement, and pledged to reimburse all affected users. MetaMask confirmed that its own prediction market users are unaffected, noting that it does not use Polymarket’s front end or SDKs.
CFTC Scrutiny Adds To The Picture
The platform launch and subsequent halt come amid an existing CFTC investigation. Reuters reported that the regulator is examining whether Polymarket violated a 2022 settlement requiring it to block US users from its offshore platform, and is also reviewing customer protections and onboarding procedures on the US platform. Neither the CFTC nor Polymarket has publicly commented on the investigation’s current status.
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