- The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to significantly boost global prediction market activity, according to Bernstein.
- Analysts estimate the tournament could generate $3B+ in sports betting handle and up to $10B in prediction market volume.
- Coinbase is positioned as a key beneficiary, with its prediction market revenue already surpassing $100M annually.
As the 2026 FIFA World Cup sparks an unexpected increase in user activity and trade volume, Coinbase may become one of the largest beneficiaries of the expanding prediction market sector.
The month-long competition might result in billions of dollars in extra prediction market activity, which would present a significant potential for platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood, according to a recent Bernstein analysis.
One of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, Coinbase, provides millions of users worldwide with blockchain-based financial services, trading, and custody.
With billions of spectators every four years, the FIFA World Cup, which is hosted by FIFA, continues to be the most-viewed football competition worldwide.
With 104 matches and an enlarged format, the 2026 edition is the biggest in the tournament’s history. The 23rd FIFA World Cup is taking place this year, marking a significant milestone in the history of international football.
The event is being jointly staged in 16 cities, 11 in the United States, 3 in Mexico, and 2 in Canada, between June 11 and July 19, 2026.
Three nations are hosting the competition for the first time ever, featuring 48 national teams instead of just 32 in prior iterations.
More matches, increased attention from around the world, and increased interaction on digital platforms, including prediction markets, are anticipated as a result of this expanded format.
The event, according to analysts, has the potential to turn what is typically a quiet time for online sports betting into one of the busiest seasons for prediction markets.
World Cup 2026 Could Fuel Billions In Prediction Markets
According to Bernstein, the tournament may increase sports betting handle by over $3 billion and increase consumer prediction market volume by $5 billion to $10 billion.
FIFA anticipates that the event will draw millions of consumers who want to interact with prediction-based goods, with an estimated 6 billion spectators worldwide.
Just months after launching the program, the cryptocurrency exchange’s annualized prediction market income exceeded $100 million in March.
Users in all 50 U.S. states can now trade event contracts related to sports, politics, entertainment, and other real-world outcomes because of Coinbase’s collaboration with Kalshi, a Manhattan-based regulated prediction market platform.
Major sporting events like the World Cup typically drive higher user engagement, as fans actively participate in prediction markets during live matches.
Prediction Markets Continue Rapid Growth
Robinhood is setting itself up to profit from this trend. According to Bernstein, the trading firm is launching Rothera, its CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange and clearinghouse, with the World Cup. Prediction markets are predicted by analysts to contribute significantly to Robinhood’s revenue growth in 2026.
The rapid rise of prediction markets highlights how consumers are increasingly turning to event-based trading to engage with sports, politics, and real-world events. According to a Bitget Wallet and Polymarket research from April, the monthly trading volume in the prediction market was close to $26 billion, with over 80% of participants being retail traders.
Sports-related contracts accounted for over 39% of all prediction market volume in March alone, indicating growing consumer interest in event-based trading.
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