The odds of the U.S. Clarity Act passing this year have dropped sharply after President Donald Trump revealed he earned about $1.4 billion from crypto ventures. This disclosure has raised new concerns about ethics and potential conflicts of interest. Prediction markets now show the bill faces tough odds in Congress, with traders lowering their expectations for its passage.
The decline is due to political uncertainty, Senate delays, and more calls from Democrats for stronger safeguards against conflicts of interest among public officials. As a result, there is growing doubt that the long-awaited crypto market structure bill will reach President Trump’s desk this year.
Polymarket data shows the chance of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 dropped to 39% on July 1, its lowest point yet. The platform now suggests the bill is unlikely to pass this year, which is a big change from earlier optimism.
The Clarity Act is seen as a key piece of U.S. crypto legislation because it aims to clarify regulators’ roles and set a clear legal framework for digital assets. Many in the crypto industry believe this kind of law is needed to boost investment and innovation.
But the bill faces several challenges. The U.S. Senate has a packed schedule, so there is little time for debate and voting. Galaxy Digital has also lowered its estimate of the bill’s chances to 50%, pointing to Senate delays and lawmakers’ busy calendars.
Prediction platform Kalshi is even more cautious. It gives the bill just a 0.1% chance of passing in July and 13% in August. In the last 24 hours, Polymarket forecasts have swung between 36% and 44%, showing traders are increasingly uncertain.
Trump’s financial disclosure has made the political situation more complex. Critics say a president with large crypto earnings should not help approve laws that could affect the industry. Democratic lawmakers want stricter ethics rules before backing the bill, and some traditional banking groups have also raised concerns about the proposed framework.
The Clarity Act is still in play, but its future looks more uncertain. If lawmakers cannot resolve their differences and move the bill quickly through the Senate, the crypto industry may have to wait longer for the clear rules it wants.
BREAKING: The “Clarity Act” is no longer projected to be signed into law this year. pic.twitter.com/pt7S5sYqjc
— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) June 30, 2026
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