JPMorgan Sees 10% Annual Bitcoin Returns, Warns Of 55% Volatility

JPMorgan, the U.S.-based multinational financial services company generating income through banking, lending, investment, and asset management activities, has included Bitcoin in its long-term return outlook.

The company’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions released on October 20 forecast a 10 percent compound annual return on Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years. It is the first time since the 1980s that Bitcoin has been incorporated in the long-dated projections, and the return outlook is better than that of U.S. large-cap stocks, real estate investment trusts, and gold.

How Bitcoin Fits With Other Asset Classes

According to the report, the expected annual return of U.S. large-cap stocks is 7.5 percent, while that of real estate investment trusts, which are corporations owning and operating income-producing properties, is 8.2 percent. In addition, gold is expected to yield 5.5 percent annually. Bitcoin’s 10% projection sits above all three.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 20, 2026

The bank’s Bitcoin estimates cover a wide span. Its upside scenario assumes a 17% annual return, while its bearish case points to a 9.7% annual loss. JPMorgan also puts Bitcoin’s arithmetic annual return at 20.9% and its annualized volatility at 55%. Gold’s volatility, by comparison, is estimated at 17.2%.

A Scenario Based Estimate, Not A Forecast For Every Year

The 10% figure is a long-term planning assumption. It does not mean that JPMorgan is expecting an increase of 10 percent in the value of Bitcoin for every year, and it is not meant to be a short-term price target.

JPMorgan has not added Bitcoin to its standard portfolio allocations. The bank pointed to the asset’s sharp price swings and its shifting relationship with other asset classes. The projections show both Bitcoin’s potential return profile and the uncertainty investors face, and they are best read as a range of possible outcomes rather than a guarantee of performance.

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